Influence of Non-economic Environments on Management Effectiveness Essay

Influence of Non-economic Environments on Management Effectiveness - Essay Example This paper offers a comprehensive analysis of the non-economic factors of business environment and describes the effects that this factors could have on an overall economic performance of any organization. One of the most important issues when designing a business strategy is the location and the evaluation of the factors that could influence the operation and the performance of the business. The nature of the factors that can ‘interact’ with a firm’s management can vary in accordance with the following variables: the type of business activities, the country where the firm operates, the political and natural environment and the culture/ knowledge/ ethnicity of the employees but also of the employer. Moreover, these factors can be related to financial data or to other elements of non-economic character, like the physical environment, the human resources and the market (referring to the people and not to financial activities). In order to achieve an integrated presentation of the non-economic business environment that has an influence to the structure, the decisions and the performance of its management, we should refer to its separate elements (in both external and internal area) as they can be observed from their interaction to the firm’s activities. The role of the non-economic factors to the business management can be characterized as critical regarding the consequences that they may have on the performance and for the individuals that participate to the firm’s operation. Behavior of the business as an entity is also important as it can provide the measures for the limitation or even the elimination of the negative consequences that can follow the interaction of the non-economic factors with the corporate activity.

How to Set a Workplace Vacation Policy Essay Example for Free

How to Set a Workplace Vacation Policy Essay A guide to structuring a vacation policy that sets the tone for your benefits package and keeps employees happy and motivated not to mention gives your company a competitive edge. Deciding what sort of vacation policy you want your company to have is an important step for any business owner in creating a comprehensive employee benefits package. Whether you want to create a system of rewards, or you are just trying to create a set of guidelines for time off, there are several ways that establishing a vacation policy can help contribute to your business functioning smoothly. The following guide will highlight the various options available for creating or improving a vacation policy. How to Set a Workplace Vacation Policy: Consider Legal Requirements Although vacation time seems like a standard occurrence in the American workforce, employers actually have no legal obligation to offer their employees any vacation time at all. However, the majority of business owners understand the health benefits of offering their employees vacation time, and they aim to set policies that fit their businesss operations. While time off for vacation is not federally enforced, employers are legally obligated to provide certain employees with up to 12 weeks of unpaid, job-protected leave each year under the Family Medical Leave Act (FMLA), a labor law which was passed in 1993. Employees that would qualify for this type of leave include persons that are caring for a sick family member, persons who must leave due to a serious health condition that prevents them from working, or persons that have to care for a new child, by birth, adoption or foster care. Dig Deeper: Regulation: Your Own FMLA Policy How to Set a Workplace Vacation Policy: What Are Your Priorities? According to Steve Kane, a human resources expert based out of Hillsborough, California, with more than 25 years of experience working with enterprise companies and start-up businesses, vacation time is simply one form of paid time off (PTO), and before you choose your vacation guidelines, you must begin with deciding what you want to accomplish. You have to put your [benefits] strategy into perspective, he says. Are you setting a vacation policy to create a rewards structure, to minimize costs, [or] to be competitive? Those are all worthy things, but they may lead to different conclusions. Traditional vacation policies, Kane says, have stemmed from policies established by labor union contracts, which will grant employees a certain amount of time off depending upon the length of time they have worked for the company. And, in addition to the yearly allotment of vacation time a company decides to grant employees, many businesses offer additional time off for personal days, sick days, and national or religious holidays, like New Years Day, Independence Day, and Christmas Day. An employer has the option of giving employees two weeks off for the first year, three weeks off after five years, and four weeks off for 10 or 15 years, Kane says. But, those are just some common schedules; some employees say two weeks for everyone. Accrued time off – additional sick days, PTO or vacation time that employees accumulate based on the length of time they have worked at a company – is also more prevalent now than it used to be. Rollover vacation days – unused vacation time from one calendar year that gets added onto next years allotment – may count as part of accrued time off, but it depends on the employer, Kane says: Some employers say you have to use your rollover days by March 30, or some date in the next year. Or, they will say you can accrue unused vacation time only up to so many hours, or for so many hours. One more factor to take into consideration when creating a vacation policy is to determine whether you feel that your business has key employees. If that is the case, you may want to construct separate policies to keep those employees satisfied for the good of the enterprise, Kane says. For instance, since many businesses have sales people who consistently bring money in, you may consider offering a vacation policy with a higher incentive to that group of people who are driving your business. However, if singling out groups of people within the company leaves other employees unsatisfied, you may be better off sticking to a universal policy. Dig Deeper: Benefits: Time Off You Can Bank On How to Set a Workplace Vacation Policy: Enforcing a Vacation Policy While time off from work is often viewed as an earned employee benefit, a whopping 66 percent of employees were found to have neglected to use all of their vacation time in 2009, according to a study released by Philadelphia-based career management consulting firm Right Management. So, what does an employer do when an employee neglects to take their days off? Kane says that many companies have a use it or lose it policy, which means that if an employee fails to use the vacation time they are entitled to in a given year, it becomes forfeited. Theoretically, doctors will tell you its good to take time off to regenerate, but that only way you can actually make [employees] take a vacation is just to tell them not to come into work, he says. Most vacation systems try to make that a part of the policy, but its enforced by the payroll department, rather than individual supervisors. An employer must also decide whether they want to include part-time employees in a vacation policy, or limit that option to full-time workers only. For some stores, their bread and butter are part-time employees, Kane says. I think its a general rule that employers whose workforce is part-time often [tell employees they] wont accrue vacation for working 20 hours a week or less. If an employee decides to abuse his or her vacation policy, however, the consequences can be dire, and may even result in termination. Typically, a companys human resources or payroll department will keep track of employee sick days and vacation days, and it will be up to them to report abuse to their manager or employer. Dig Deeper: Are Your Employees Scared to Take a Vacation? How to Set a Workplace Vacation Policy: Get Employee Input Vacation time is one aspect of the benefits package that will be difficult to alter once it has been established, so its best to ask your employees what they hope to gain from the policy before its set in stone. A big mistake that employers make in creating a policy, Kane says, is setting guidelines based on what they heard worked for another company, rather than focusing on the needs of their own business and employees. One thing to remember is that if you decide to ask your employees what they want, you have to provide them with the proper education about potential plans so they can make a well-informed decision. If you are putting a new plan to a vote, Kane recommends asking how many people want option A, how many want option B, and how many dont care either way: If you provide the middle option of, Im indifferent, then you can potentially increase the percentage of employees who are happy with the result. Dig Deeper: Giving Employees a Say How to Set a Workplace Vacation Policy: Scrapping Your Policy Altogether If you are contemplating the terms of a workplace vacation policy, a critical step is to determine whether or not it benefits your business to have one at all. Some workplaces have decided to scrap their policies altogether, and allow employees to take off as much time as they want. The theory behind this option is that it de-bureaucratizes the workplace, and, rather than making employees feel like they will be compensated for productivity, they will maintain increased productivity by not having to stress out about proving their self-worth within the company. This concept of workplace democracy, and doing away with employer-sanctioned occupational limitations, has become one of the most important movements in the business world, says Brian Carney, London-based member of the editorial board of theWall Street Journal, editorial page director of the Wall Street Journal Europe, and co-author of the business book, Freedom, Inc.: Free Your Employees and Let Them Lead Your Business to Higher Productivity, Profits, and Growth. One of the things that we discovered [in doing research for this book] is that to really liberate employees, you have to get them out of the mindset of trading material goods in one form or another for performance, he says. According to Carney, a lot of employers are hesitant to consider getting rid of a vacation policy because employees see it as something they are entitled to and something they take comfort in – a dynamic which can be destructive to a company. You have to break that dynamic of, give me something, and Ill give you something, says Carney. You dont establish a vacation policy to encourage people to bankroll [time off], you establish a vacation policy to let people see that its healthy to take time off work.

Alcohol :: essays research papers

A class is chemical compounds, all if which consists of chemically bonded atoms of carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen all alcohol molecules contain at least one hydroxyl group. When people say alcohol they usually think of beer, wine, or liquor, but there are several types of alcohol. An alcoholic beverage is a drink that contains ethyl alcohol. They are mostly made of grains or from grapes or other fruits. There are two main groups fermented and distilled drinks. Fermented drinks contain from five percent to twenty percent ethyl alcohol. Distilled contains twelve percent to fifty-five percent or more ethyl alcohol. The consumption of beverages containing alcohol has been practiced in all parts of the world for thousands of years. The first alcoholic beverages were fermented. Scenes showing fermentation appear on pottery made in Mesopotamia as early as 4200 B.C. Mankind early discovered that drinking the fermented juices of certain fruits, berries, and grain produced an extremely pleasant effect. Among primitive peoples, alcoholic drinks increased the excitement of tribal festivals. In more civilized nations, beers and wines in the daily diet were believed beneficial to health. During the 1800’s, a movement began in the United States to prohibit the manufacture and sale of alcoholic beverages. A constitutional amendment banning the beverages went into effect in 1920, but thousands of Americans defied the prohibition law. In 1930, the federal government estimated that about 800 million gallons of alcoholic beverages were being produced in the country annually. The prohibition amendment was repealed in 1933. When alcohol is taken into the stomach and intestines, it is absorbed and distributed rapidly throughout the entire body fluids and tissues. The body disposes of alcohol through oxidation. This process lasts as long as the alcohol remains in the system, it may require several hours after the last drink is taken. Small amounts of alcohol may relieve tension or fatigue and increase appetite. Large amounts inhibit or depress the higher mental processes, causing a rise in self-confidence and a reduction of feelings of anxiety and guilt.

Taliban/Osama Movie

J. Galloway, T. Lockett, M. Franklin Dr. Newson-Horst Humanities 301 March 7, 2013 Taliban/Osama The Taliban are a large Sunni Islamist group of men who rule in Afghanistan. The Taliban presence in Afghanistan was densest in 1996 on through 2001. The Taliban presence/force declined in 2001 with the invasion of the U. S. military in The Middle East after the September 11 attacks. The Taliban began as a distinct group who fought alongside other mujahedeen groups during the Cold War against the Soviet Union.In the early to late 1980's the Cold War allowed the Taliban to rise to power. The Taliban group was set apart from other mujahedeen groups because of their focus on the learning and teaching of the Islamic faith alongside actual fighting. The film Osama written by Siddiq Barmak, provides an accurate depiction of the Taliban in Afghanistan by its in depth portrayal of the Taliban’s religious values, control, and acts of violence. The religious values of the Taliban are what fo rm them as a group.Anyone who wished to fight on the Taliban front would have to comply with their strict routine of prayer and study which filled their lives when they were not fighting. In the film viewers may perhaps gain this interpretation as they watched the young boys hauled off to a Taliban ran school where they prayed and studied the Qur’an in several scenes. The Taliban follow the Islamic faith very strictly sticking to traditional views and values especially towards women. The women under Taliban control cannot work, wear what they please, or come and go as they please.The religious values learned and taught by the Taliban takes a huge toll on the everyday lives of the people who are succumbed to that way of life. The Taliban has a substantial amount of control in Afghanistan with fifty-four percent of the control being permanent. Taliban ruled areas are doomed with laws and constant terror. The women are harassed and forced to wear burkas at all times. In the film a member of the Taliban warns a husband to make his wife cover her feet in fear of other men being aroused by her feet.The Taliban in Afghanistan gain finances through drug trafficking, kidnapping, and foreign donations. Private citizens from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Iran, and some Persian Gulf nations are the largest contributors to the donations of the Taliban group in Afghanistan. The group was trademarked by controlling women to wear burkas, banning television, and jailing men whose beards were deemed too short. These controlling antics are depicted throughout the film. The violent nature of the Taliban is heavily present in the film Osama.In one scene women were protesting for the right to work to provide for their families. The Taliban blasted these women and their children with water and sprayed bullets into the crowd. Several protesting women were jailed for their participation. The Taliban also participates in kidnapping as a means of financial gain. They commit high profil e kidnappings for ransom to fund their terror. Finally, the Taliban has its own judicial system where many people have their lives taking away for random acts of resistance against Taliban law.In the film one can see an American reporter sentenced to death for recording the Taliban. The Taliban conduct live stoning to death with its members and crowd. In conclusion, the Taliban's large presence in Afghanistan has been in place for a very long time. The lifestyle of Middle Eastern women, men, and children are shaped around the ruling of the Taliban. The Taliban parade the streets and cause terror in the lives of its people. The film Osama aided with the understanding of the Taliban rule.Viewers gain a first-hand interpretation of the hardships faced under Taliban rule and how tough it is to uphold as a family. Citations Ansari, Fahad. â€Å"Understanding the Taliban Movement. † Harakah Daily/en H 1434 (2013): n. pag. 06 Mar. 2013. Web. Bajoria, Jayshree. â€Å"Council on Fore ign Relations. † Backgrounder (n. d. ): n. pag. Council on Foreign Relations. 06 Oct. 2011. Web. 05 Mar. 2013. Fremson, Ruth. Taliban (n. d. ): n. pag. Nytimes. com. The New York Times, 10 Oct. 2012. Web. 05 Mar. 2013. .

IB Economics Commentary †Australia MPs Pass Carbon Tax Essay

The Australian government will bring in one of the world’s biggest carbon emissions trading schemes after MPs passed two bills by senators that are expected to vote into law in November. A carbon tax is an environmental tax levied on the carbon content of fuels. A negative externality of production occurs when the production of a good or service creates external costs that are damaging to third parties. This is mainly related to the environmental problems. Figure 1. Negative Externality of Production for Carbon Emission Figure 1 shows if the government is not intervening and the market is determined by only supply and demand, known as free market, the marginal private costs of the firm are below the marginal social cost because there is an extra cost to society caused by pollution. Pollution includes increase in fossil fuel burning, which would release CO2 into the atmosphere and the loss of carbon sinks. Also, it is said that CO2 emissions harm ocean’s ability to absorb carbon. The firm will only be concerned with its private costs and will produce at Q1. It is not producing at the socially efficient output, where the marginal social cost is equal to the marginal social benefit. This means that at a price of p* from figure 1 would create Q*. The community surplus is not maximized due to the effects of pollution, since it is causing a negative consequence. One way government policies may counter the problem is to tax the firm in order to increase the firm’s private costs. The carbon tax aims to cut Australia’s emissions by 5% from year 2000 levels by the year 2020, and bring emissions down 80% by 2050. The tax requires the country’s 500 biggest polluters to pay A$23 per tonne for their carbon emissions. Figure 2: Taxing a Negative Externality of Production for Carbon Emission Figure 2 shows when the government decided to tax that will help the economy, there is still a welfare lose, but it is less than under the free market with no government intervention. The pink color shading shows the welfare loss before the tax and the red color shading shows the welfare loss after taxing, which clearly shows it would reduce the deadweight burden, but not eliminate it completely. It is suggested that government should counter the externality to increase welfare. In this case, stakeholders include firms, labors, and households. Firms are the increase cost, labors refer to the consideration of losing job and households refer to the price level that is rising. If government chose not to tax, the economy would most likely to run in a short term, since there is too much welfare loss. However, government chose to tax the negative externality of production, which the economy could run in long-term. The higher the government tax, the less welfare loss will result. Also, households will be compensated for rising prices due to the carbon tax. The government concluded with the plan to turn the economy into a tradable emission permits schemes. However, this is certainly not the best choice since it doesn’t lead to the reduction of pollution once allowable limit has been set and government might not have the data of the total level of pollution and it is very difficult to measure a firm’s pollution output. To conclude my evaluation, apply taxation added to the economy is the most suitable choice government should make. It is suggested in the article, however, not their final decision. Firms are the increase cost, labors refer to the consideration of losing job and households might consider rearranging the price level and firms should consider about increasing cost, which not a lot of people could afford. The other choices take time to plan and have to consider a lot of consequences. However, taxing is not easy as well. It could be difficult to measure accurately the pollution created, but it does help reduce the welfare loss, which already is improving. Peter Hoeller and Markku Walli, Autumn 1991, Energy Prices, Taxes and Carbon Dioxide Emissions [online] OECD Economic Studies No. 17. Available at: Tom Marshall, February 3 2009, CO2 Emissions harm Ocean’s ability to absorb carbon [online] Natural Environment Research Council. Available at:

Starting a Business After Graduation †Marketing Research Essay

Starting a Business After Graduation – Marketing Research Essay Free Online Research Papers Starting a Business After Graduation Marketing Research Essay Making a good career decision involves both self-assessment and market research. Begin the self-assessment process by examining your skills and identifying what kinds of products or services you can offer. What skills do you most enjoy using? If you are artistic, merchandising a store and designing advertising may appeal to you. Or you may be mechanically inclined, enjoy solving puzzles or helping people. All businesses require dedication, determination, passion, flexibility and urgency. Consumers today have a wonderful sense of well-being and wealth, but you should be prepared for a sharp or extended decline. There are all sorts of things that can turn people away from shopping, so plan for good times as well as rocky ones. If you want to get into a retail business because times are good, you may want to think again. If your passion for going out on your own and dealing directly with the public is not extinguished by the prospect of difficult times. I planned to retail a fashion store with a specialty retailer. Which is a power retailers like target tend to sell needs, specialty retailers tend to sell wants. They focus more on neighbourhood convenience, the richness of the shopping experience, and inventory that meets the needs of their target customer on a personalized basis. Small stores show surprising strength and flexibility in the face of competition from large-scale retailers and e-commerce outlets. They offer the consumer a warmer atmosphere, and perhaps a broader and deeper selection of goods. Many stores can be owned and operated by one person with minimal assistance. Compared to manufacturing operations, specialty retail outfits are relatively easy to start both financially and operationally. However, a number of failures are due to undercapitalization, poor location and insufficient market analysis. Most successful small businesses provide something attractive or advantageous by taking whats already there and developing some innovative features. I will develop a special community consciousness which is to full fill my customer’s need. Example, if they have any special banquet, they could me order or propose what kind of material for their unique dressing and their design as well. Although a great location may not guarantee success, a bad location will almost always guarantee failure. A new retail business needs to be where the customers are. I need to find a location with a reasonable degree of security, access to public transportation for your customers and employees, adequate parking for commercial as well as personal vehicles, room for an office, and that all-important sales space. Where you locate will settle on the hours you keep, who your clients is, and what types of promotions you do. Also, where you set up shop will impact how long it will take you to grow. Luckily, I have lots of options. The best retail location combines visibility, affordability and lease terms that I can live with. Retailers need to be where the action is, so deciding where to put my business is every bit as important as the business that I decide to go into. Take the time to analyze the areas that appeal to me. There are three phases of choosing a location for your retail business: selection of a city, choice of an area or type of location within a city, and identification of a specific site. The place I choose for my fashion store which is a new shop house beside the road. Because it is a new shop lot so I think every passenger pass by will be have a look on that. There will no traffic flow, corresponding nature of next-door stores, capability of packing problem. There will be no zoning changes that will be advantageous for competitor or even allow new competitors to enter your trade area. I will take my positioning statement from my business plan and present it in the 3-D world of location, architecture and interior design. Use scale, colours, textures, materials, amenities and layout to express my stores philosophy. I will use a neon, elegant columns and casual corners, subdued hues and marble floors to set the stage for my customers. My store has planned two key elements: store design and store layout. Store design is concerned with atmosphere, image, interior design and exterior design factors. Store layout involves the internal arrangements of each department, selling and sales support allocation, and the evaluation of space productivity. To set up my store, consider consulting with architects, interior designers and lighting engineers. Working with skilful designers gives me an invaluable resource: Not only will they know the best location for air conditioners and elevators, but they can help build flexibility into lighting systems that will keep me from incur costs when floor layouts are altered. Designers keep abreast of the hottest colour schemes, materials, sources and trends to a degree that would be impossible for someone outside the trades to do. For my own opinion, to make my own business success, there is a lot of market segmentation I need to know which is:- ? Sensitive to prices changes If we are not sensitive with this, our customer might be get a more special offer from my competitor In making your pricing decisions, you need to answer these questions: ? What prices are shoppers willing to pay for the merchandise? ? Where do you want to be in comparison with your competitors pricing: equal, above or below? ? What is the suggested real price proposed by the supplier? ? What are the qualities or characteristics of the merchandise that influence a shoppers perception of quality and value-style, perish ability, scarcity, richness, commodity or other? ? Packaging and pop display This is the most important passion to my customers. Through the packaging we can know that what the quality of material in the shop is and so on. ? What are the consumer psychological characteristics? What is my customers’ feeling, sentiments, buying motives and behavioural patterns and designs? ? Product-variety marketing Produces how to move products that have different quality features, styles, size and so on. ? Target marketing Select one or more of them, develops products and marketing mixes tailored to each. This is making few same design or same colour dressing from them to attend those unique banquets. Other that that, the promotional mix also I need to be more aware. Advertising and personal selling such as point of purchase display, exhibition, usually non-recurring in nature. ? Introduction Heavy advertising and public relations to build awareness. ? Growth Heavy advertising and public relations to build brand loyalty. Decreasing use of sales promotion. Personal selling to maintain distribution. ? Product research Which is concern with the analysis of the strengths and weakness of the existing products, development of new products, product diversification and all kinds of product line decision? ? Media research Broucher, flyer, banner and streamer ? Consumer research This is concerned with the discovery and analysis of the consumer. ? Sales research This relates to the problem of regional variations in sales, fixing sales territories, measurement of effectiveness of sales force, evaluation of sales method. Research Papers on Starting a Business After Graduation - Marketing Research EssayAnalysis of Ebay Expanding into AsiaMarketing of Lifeboy Soap A Unilever ProductRiordan Manufacturing Production PlanOpen Architechture a white paperIncorporating Risk and Uncertainty Factor in CapitalThe Project Managment Office SystemNever Been Kicked Out of a Place This NiceBionic Assembly System: A New Concept of SelfPETSTEL analysis of IndiaDefinition of Export Quotas

Japanese unique ways of thinking essays

Japanese unique ways of thinking essays Lying in the Far East of Asia, surrounded by the oceans, Japan is very understandable to be isolated from the rest of the continent. Through Kokoro, the heart within and the feature films about Japan, we can see that this country has a long and unique history. According to Japan tradition, the year 660 B.C. is the date of founding of Japan as a nation under the mythological Emperor Jimmu. At that time, Japans Shinto religion was established leading people to the beliefs of reverence for nature and ancestor worship. Since Shinto reflects Japans history and traditions, it has become known as Japans national religion and it plays a key role throughout the history of the country. In Kokoro, the heart within, the producer starts out by depicting the importance of looking at Japanese people to find the heart within Japan. The simple life of the men living by the sea illustrates a part of Japan: the plain and peaceful but hard working life in the middle of the ocean. Another unique picture of Japan is the scene of the woman going to the temple everyday washes her hands and mouth with the pure water and praying for happiness. This image is a great example to demonstrate the value of Japanese people cherishing the purity of nature versus the impurity of evil which they need to wash off. Yet, the most significant part of the unique of Japan is the belief in Shinto which contributes to every aspects of life in Japan, even daily activities. Shinto emphasizes both Japanese deities and the forces of nature. Nature plays a central role in the religious worship. They believe that all natural objects including trees, mountains, rivers, the sun or the moon are imbued with living spirit and that God is within that everything so people can seek for when they need. This belief also leads to the unique way of thinking in Japans building structure. All the temples and houses are constructed in harmony to natu...

The New, Delightful Use of Because

The New, Delightful Use of Because The New, Delightful Use of Because The New, Delightful Use of Because By Maeve Maddox The headline over a recent article (Nov. 19, 2013) by Megan Garber in The Atlantic announces, â€Å"English Has a New Preposition.† The subhead expresses implied approval: Linguists are recognizing the delightful evolution of the word â€Å"because.† Linguists may be recognizing the jocular elliptical use of because as a â€Å"delightful evolution,† but I have my suspicions that grammarians are less than enthusiastic. The word because is used to introduce reasons. As a subordinating conjunction, its job is to join a subordinate adverbial clause to a main clause: Mr. Wilson will not be at the awards ceremony because he has broken his leg. Because the weather is frightful, the annual homecoming parade has been cancelled. The phrase â€Å"because of† introduces a noun phrase or a gerund: Because of the lateness of the hour, we decided not to stop for coffee. Because of running late, we skipped our usual stop at the coffee shop. A previously existing elliptical use of because is often heard in conversation, as in this example from the OED entry: Why didnt you leave the bottle?’ ‘Because!’ I said shortly. I wasnt going to explain my feelings on the matter. Linguists have dubbed the â€Å"new† use of because the â€Å"because noun† or the because+noun.† The most popular speculation about its origin is that it began as a recurring joke on Saturday Night Live. Neal Whitman gives this example from SNL in an article called ‘Because as a Preposition†: If you ever fall off the Sears Tower, just go real limp, because maybe you’ll look like a dummy and people will try to catch you because, hey, free dummy. SNL fans adopted the joke with such variations as â€Å"If life gives you lemons, keep them, because, hey, free lemons.† Whitman explains the evolution from the â€Å"hey† construction to the â€Å"because noun† construction: Before the â€Å"hey,† we have a regular English sentence. After the â€Å"hey,† we have an extremely condensed and abbreviated thought, represented by just a noun phrase. The humor in the â€Å"free dummy† and â€Å"free lemons† sentences comes from the speaker’s assumption that all he or she needs to say is â€Å"free dummy† or â€Å"free lemons,† and naturally you, the listener can fill in all the rest. A free dummy? Heck, yeah, who wouldn’t want a free dummy? Doesn’t everybody want one?   He points out that in the 2000s, the â€Å"because-hey† construction became popular in Internet memes. Eventually the hey dropped out, leaving only the because. I think that long before the internet intruded into our lives, the â€Å"preposition+noun† construction could be overheard in millions of homes: Child: Can I stay up a little longer? Mother: No. Child: Why? Mother: Because. Child: Because why? Mother: Because, Bedtime! Whatever its origin, the â€Å"because+noun† is in wide use in the speech of young speakers. It certainly suits the spirit of the times, with its laconic, sarcastic, and irreverent tone. And, in these grammar-challenged times, it’s extremely useful, relieving one of the labor of completing a thought. The because+noun may become a feature of the language, but for the present, it is a nonstandard elliptical construction that doesn’t belong in formal writing. Want to improve your English in five minutes a day? Get a subscription and start receiving our writing tips and exercises daily! Keep learning! Browse the Expressions category, check our popular posts, or choose a related post below:Creative Writing 101Is There a Reason â€Å"the Reason Why† Is Considered Wrong?Using "May" in a Question

Human Resource in Coffee Masters Company Assignment

Human Resource in Coffee Masters Company - Assignment Example Between this major entity and the minimal waged consumer, there are untapped resources in form of reaching out to these menial waged consumers (Edgar & Fiona 45). Coffee Masters have an objective of offering the quality coffee at a much lower price. Additionally, the organization has branches in suburbs which hold a significant number of people in its target market. Also in its objectives, the organization aims at using the human labor of the locals to fuel the activities in the organization. To aid in this the organization has a total of 100 employees in all its branches. Each branch has an internal staff, 30 members. The rest of the employees are involved other activities like marketing, sales, logistics, branch supervisors and the organization has a large transport system which has a significant number of employees depending on the size of the branch’s logistics activity (Turner, 76). The organization is controlled by a management team located at the main branch of the organization. Additionally, the organization has employed human resources representatives at each branch. The HR rationale in this organization involves minimal contact between the employees and the main management team. The management team greatly relies on the operations of branch supervisors as the human resource representatives. In this particular organizational setting, the human resource is a simple arrangement with three levels. The top level of human resource management in this setting is the top management team. The team is led by the founders of the enterprise who carry out the task of decision making and approving recommendations (Fielding 89). From the CEOs, the organization has branch managers as the second in command. The branch managers run the branches under strict instructions from the CEOs. Below the branch managers lie the other staff members with the highest ranked staff member being a branch supervisor. In  Ã‚  terms of human resource management, the organization has an HR manager who has the responsibility of hiring and terminating employment contracts.

Dolphins are human Term Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Dolphins are human - Term Paper Example This is in regard to scientific evidence which supports the caring of dolphins. White’s philosophy revolves around the life of dolphins, their biological make up, intelligence capability, and the scientific research that has been conducted to support the argument that dolphins are persons. This means that just as human beings have rights so do dolphins. Through scientific experiments that have been conducted by researches, both the scientists and philosophers try to discover whether dolphins portray the same character as that demanded of a person. Personhood in this case is associated with the combination of multiple traits essential for human beings. Human beings have been known to possess certain unique qualities and characters which greatly differentiate them from other animals. For instance, human beings have the ability to speak, express, and construct ideas (Dolphins deserve same rights as humans). This lacks among major animals. In this essence, the main question to add ress is whether dolphins can attain the status of personhood. White in his book identified the main features that are essential for one to attain the status of personhood. Among the traits he established were intelligence, awareness, ability to recognize people, controlled behavior, the ability to construct ideas and concepts and emotional self-consciousness. This demonstrated that he was more concerned with the status of dolphins as persons (White 198). The issue of self awareness and consciousness justifies the idea that dolphins are humans and should be treated like persons. Due to this, they have a right to life and should not be submitted to servitude or captivity. Scientists discovered that dolphins are among the most intelligent non-humans through experiments conducted which established that dolphins have higher brain capacity coming second after humans. They are in a position to clearly understand and analyze concepts. Their intelligence is also associated with the ability t o handle difficult tasks which other animals are incapable of. It has been proven by scientists that dolphins are able to do things which are beyond human understanding. For instance, it was noted among the earlier sailors that they were very helpful to sailors who lost their way. They normally maintain a very close relationship with human beings and they are also capable of communicating their feelings to human beings. Their biological senses make them more advanced than human beings. They also have the ability to sense danger from afar and in this case have their unique ways of dealing with challenges. The ability to cure ailments is attributed to supernatural forces and doctors in major societies. In this regard, dolphins have been established to possess a supernatural power of curing ailments. This has made it difficult for humans to understand their true nature. It is estimated that dolphins take great care of one another especially when one is injured or killed. Once in Icelan d, fishermen could be directed on where to place their nets by dolphins and they were able to also communicate their needs and how they felt to others. It was observed that they are also were capable of recognizing themselves in the mirror and research has proved that they are able to focus and think about the future (Camosy 99). Dolphins should be considered persons as they have a combination of different traits which enhances this argument on the reason why they should be

English class Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words - 1

English class - Essay Example The desire to contribute to the technical world is mounting in the young minds. They are motivated and inspired to provide their innovative ideas in the field of engineering and therefore School of Engineering was the best opportunity to enable these aspiring talents to procure their degrees and make their ways in the field of engineering. The School of Engineering was opened in the spring of 2008 in the span of 115,000 square foot area with finest lecture halls and 60 research as well as teaching laboratories. This also encompasses study spaces, classrooms and faculty offices as well. The young talents also want to put their share of contribution in the field of business and they are keen in providing a new dimension to the field of business and their dealings in a novel paradigm. Keeping this in view, School of Business was opened in January 2008 in a wide area of 145,000 sq. ft. The area encompasses classrooms in traditional manner with faculty offices a trading room as well as ca pital markets center. It also encompasses common rooms for students where they can share their views and thoughts in a more informal manner. It also keeps in view that recreation is must for the process of learning and therefore it also includes cafe for refreshing self and also for relaxing mind to accommodate and contribute more towards learning process. It also emphasize on the collaborative learning process as well as team discussions.

Meeting the Challenge of Sustainable Business' - Cork Industry in Term Paper

Meeting the Challenge of Sustainable Business' - Cork Industry in Portugal - Term Paper Example Internationalization strategies vary from company to company. For instance, a company may opt to seek a different strategy after an in depth analysis of the target market and the type the business or the line of products the company deals in. however, for a company that want to survive it has to ensure that its strategy is effective and efficient. This paper tries to analyse the sustainability strategy for Amorim. The Amorim Company focuses on the Cork products business. Its research and design department contributed immensely towards the discovery, examination and implementation of the most appropriate practices in cork oak forest in Portugal. The department further develops in-depth studies into the cultivation of the oak trees that provide cork harvests. In order to ensure sustainability, Amorim fosters strict association with both external and internal research platforms. This strategy aims at guaranteeing the quality of cork oak by-products, as well as the vitality of the forests. Therefore, the company collaborates with institutes associated with forestry and agriculture. The paper analyses the business strategies, PESTEL Analysis and the trends that exhibit the company. Despite not owning a forest, the Amorim Company focuses on the Cork products business. Its research and design department contributed immensely towards the discovery, examination and implementation of the most appropriate practices in cork oak forest in Portugal. The department further develops in-depth studies into the cultivation of the oak trees that provide cork harvests. As a result, the company provides the appropriate mechanisms for diseases and pests control of the oak tree (Aronson, 2009, 5). The West Mediterranean Basin boasts of two point two million hectares of Cork oak forests. Roughly ninety percent of the forest area of the cork oak species can be found in Spain, Portugal, Algeria and Morocco. Farmers in this regions

Task4 accounting manager Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1250 words

Task4 accounting manager - Essay Example This report may help the management to look into the real reasons for such variances and control them. These are all the accounting functions which every organization has to undertake for future accountability. In addition to these, continuous improvement of service has to be embarked upon. The firm has never given any thought towards such performance improvement. Of these functions, only some direction has been derived towards strategic decisions that too because of the expected economic downturn. That means the firm is falling short of decision making in financial management terms. The company has thought upon implementing the strategy of cost leadership. However, on checking through the cost incurrence, there is a variance of 10%. The budgeted costs amounted to 70% of revenue whereas the actual expenses expanded up to 80%. This means that the strategy was not taken up seriously. Once the service terms get standardized, there will be less possibility of variances in the costs. At the same time, the cost leadership strategy can be achieved on a long term basis without any compromise on the service standards. A look into the financial report and the cash flow statement clearly states that the firm has surplus cash in hand. That means it is not making ultimate use of its available funds. If it goes for some financial management planning by acquiring new machinery, the funds would be well utilized for future low cost benefits. To implement any plan in any organization, it needs to be well communicated to all its stakeholders. They need to be explained about the shortfalls in the current management. Slowly, along with accounting management, even financial management processes have to be taken up. Once effective communication has been taken up, quick actions to implement those plans are to be initiated. The stakeholders should not find a fault that the

Meeting the Challenge of Sustainable Business' - Cork Industry in Term Paper

Meeting the Challenge of Sustainable Business' - Cork Industry in Portugal - Term Paper Example Internationalization strategies vary from company to company. For instance, a company may opt to seek a different strategy after an in depth analysis of the target market and the type the business or the line of products the company deals in. however, for a company that want to survive it has to ensure that its strategy is effective and efficient. This paper tries to analyse the sustainability strategy for Amorim. The Amorim Company focuses on the Cork products business. Its research and design department contributed immensely towards the discovery, examination and implementation of the most appropriate practices in cork oak forest in Portugal. The department further develops in-depth studies into the cultivation of the oak trees that provide cork harvests. In order to ensure sustainability, Amorim fosters strict association with both external and internal research platforms. This strategy aims at guaranteeing the quality of cork oak by-products, as well as the vitality of the forests. Therefore, the company collaborates with institutes associated with forestry and agriculture. The paper analyses the business strategies, PESTEL Analysis and the trends that exhibit the company. Despite not owning a forest, the Amorim Company focuses on the Cork products business. Its research and design department contributed immensely towards the discovery, examination and implementation of the most appropriate practices in cork oak forest in Portugal. The department further develops in-depth studies into the cultivation of the oak trees that provide cork harvests. As a result, the company provides the appropriate mechanisms for diseases and pests control of the oak tree (Aronson, 2009, 5). The West Mediterranean Basin boasts of two point two million hectares of Cork oak forests. Roughly ninety percent of the forest area of the cork oak species can be found in Spain, Portugal, Algeria and Morocco. Farmers in this regions

Hypothetical Role-play Web Base Discussion Personal Statement

Hypothetical Role-play Web Base Discussion - Personal Statement Example Also, the level and volume of content of these subjects is quite high necessitating more time. Therefore, students in the first year of the secondary school are not expected to spend more time than required in creative writing. Rather, they are instructed to formalize their writing habits by learning the art of writing essays by the use of the standard format of the introductory opening paragraph, followed by three to four paragraphs which constitute the body of the essay and close it with the concluding paragraph. They are also trained in the ways of answering objective questions, grammar, letter and report writing, dialogues, interviews. The main intention behind training in the English language and literature in the secondary school is to develop the student's grasping power and communication skills. Coming back to Ryan, I was initially impressed by the high level of interest your son exhibited in the English subject. He was very keen to get the list of the books to read so that he could get started. However, I could see his expression change when he was told that the syllabus in the secondary school was different from the one followed by the primary school. From then on, I had begun to note with growing concern that your son's performance in the English subject... But the issue does not end with change of attitude towards English. Obviously, your son has experienced some disappointment, maybe even disillusionment, with the English subject in his current year. This is the time when he must be dealt with care and concern. This is also the period to educate the child in the words of St. Francis of Assissi, to, "learn to change what he can, accept what he cannot change, and have the wisdom to know the difference." Important guidelines Besides entering the first year of the secondary school, your son is at the stage in life when children begin to exhibit signs of growing up. He wants to do his best but does not know how. He wants to spend more time reading but is unable to do so as the amount of homework he now has does not allow him more time. He wants to concentrate on his studies but finds the disruption caused by a small number of students affects the whole class. He wants to stop them but feels scared of being ostracized. He looks forward to challenging assignments but finds the content and process new and he has to learn these contents and processes before getting to the position of facing the challenges. In the circumstances, there is little you and I can do to stop your son. After all, boys will be boys. Up to this point of time, they have been good and obedient. In the times to come they must learn to face challenges. They must learn to make their choices and make them wisely. The only way to help them make the right choice is to spend time with them, understand them and show you are there for them. I am Ryan's English teacher. I am experienced in dealing with my students. I will steer

Funnist Incident in Classroom Essay Example for Free

Funnist Incident in Classroom Essay Alright so it was an ordinary day at school, and I was going to my locker in between fifth and sixth hour for the school-wide locker clean-out. I didnt have much to clean, I just emptied my locker of a few homework assignments that seemed to be hiding in the back. So I was done cleaning and I went to my sixth hour class, which really isnt much of a class as it is independent study. Its just me and these two kids from New Delhi who are in seventh grade and take pre-calculus. Well, the room I go to for sixth hour is a science room, so there are a few safety apparatuses to use, just in case: There is an eye wash station if you get chemicals in your eye and a ventilation wood if youre working with things that give off fumes. The last safety device is the safety shower, which is nothing more than a slight depression in the floor where there is a drain, a showerhead overhead, and this metal rod thing that you pull which releases an enormous gush of water. I think you use it if your clothes get on fire or if you accidentally spill chemicals on yourself. Anyhow, I was walking around the room, reading some science comics that were plastered to the wall. Well, I happened to slip on a rogue piece of cardboard that was lying on the floor, and I was spiraling out of control right towards the safety shower. I had no other choice, and plus I was a bit disoriented because I was spinning, so I grabbed on to the metal rod to stop myself from falling and WOOOOOSH A hundred gallons of cold water come down all over me! Im standing their soaking wet, not knowing what to do, and finally the teacher walks into the room and nearly drops his coffee. I was sent to the nurse and she gave me a big towel to wrap myself in. The nurse called my mom to let her know what happened, and she picked me up from school about twenty minutes later. The worst part wasnt me getting wet, oh no. When I activated the safety shower, the door to the classroom was open, and you could see me directly from the doorway! There was a whole crowd of people outside the adjacent classroom, and they started laughing !

The Qingming Festival

The Qingming Festival The Qingming Festival, Clear Bright Festival, Ancestors Day or Tomb Sweeping Day is a traditional Chinese festival on the 104th day after the winter solstice (or the 15th day from the Spring Equinox), usually occurring around April 5 of the Gregorian calendar (see Chinese calendar). Astronomically it is also a solar term (See Qingming). The Qingming festival falls on the first day of the fifth solar term, named Qingming. Its name denotes a time for people to go outside and enjoy the greenery of springtime (TÃ  qÄ «ng, treading on the greenery) and tend to the graves of departed ones. Qingming has been regularly observed as a statutory public holiday in Taiwan and in the Chinese jurisdictions of Hong Kong and Macau. Its observance was reinstated as a public holiday in mainland China in 2008, after having been previously suppressed by the ruling Communist Party in 1949. Tomb Sweeping Day and Clear Bright Festival are the most common English translations of Qingming Festival. Tomb Sweeping Day is used in several English language newspapers published in Taiwan. Qinming Festival originated from Hanshi Day (literally, Day with cold food only), memorial day for Jie Zitui (or Jie Zhitui,). He died in 636 BC in the Spring and Autumn Period. He was one of many followers of Duke Wen of Jin before he became Duke. One time during Duke Wen of Jins 19 years of exile, they didnt have any food, and Jie prepared some meat soup for Duke Wen of Jin, who enjoyed it a lot and wondered where Jie got the soup. It turned out Jie cut a piece of meat from his own thigh to make the soup. Duke Wen of Jin was so moved, he promised to reward him on day. However Jie was not the type of people who sought rewards, instead, he just wanted to help Duke Wen of Jin to return to Jin to become Duke. Once Duke Wen of Jin succeeded the throne of Duke, Jie resigned and stayed away from the Duke. Duke Wen of Jin rewarded the people who helped him in the decades, but for some reason, he forgot to reward Jie, who by then had moved into the forest with his mother. Duke Wen of Jin we nt to the forest, but couldnt find Jie. Heeding suggestions from his officials, Duke Wen of Jin ordered to set the forest in fire to force out Jie, however, Jie died in the fire. Feeling so remorse, Duke Wen of Jin ordered the 3 days without fire to honor Jies memory. The county where Jie died is still called Jiexiu (literally meaning the place Jie resting forever). Qingming has a tradition stretching back more than 2,500 years.[4] Its origin is credited to the Tang Emperor Xuanzong in 732. Wealthy citizens in China were reportedly holding too many extravagant and ostentatiously expensive ceremonies in honour of their ancestors. Emperor Xuanzong, seeking to curb this practice, declared that respects could be formally paid at ancestors graves only on Qingming.[5] The observance of Qingming found a firm place in Chinese culture and continued uninterrupted for over two millennia. In 1949 the Communist Party of China repealed the holiday. Observance of Qingming remained suppressed until 2008, when the Party reinstated the holiday. The Qingming Festival is an opportunity for celebrants to remember and honor their ancestors at grave sites. Young and old pray before the ancestors, sweep the tombs and offer food, tea, wine, chopsticks, (joss) paper accessories, and/or libation to the ancestors. The rites have a long tradition in Asia, especially among farmers. Some people carry willow branches with them on Qingming, or put willow branches on their gates and/or front doors. They believe that willow branches help ward off the evil spirit that wanders on Qingming. Also on Qingming people go on family outings, start the spring plowing, sing, dance, and Qingming is a time where young couples start courting. Another popular thing to do is fly kites (in shapes of animals or characters from Chinese opera). Others carry flowers instead of burning paper, incense or firecrackers as is common. The holiday is often marked by people paying respects to those who died in events considered sensitive in China. The April Fifth Movement and the Tiananmen Incident were major events on Qingming that took place in the history of the Peoples Republic of China. When Premier Zhou Enlai died in 1976, thousands visited him during the festival to pay their respects. Many also pay respects to victims of the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989 and the graves of Zhao Ziyang and Yang Jia in areas where rights of free expression are generally recognized, as in Hong Kong; in most areas of China such observances are suppressed and all public mention of such subjects is taboo.[4][6] In Taiwan the national holiday is observed on April 5 because the ruling Kuomintang moved it to that date in commemoration of the death of Chiang Kai-shek on April 5. The holiday is nevertheless observed in the traditional manner, with families gathering to honour their own ancestors, visit and maintain their family shri nes, and share traditional meals. Despite having no holiday status, the overseas Chinese communities in Southeast Asian nations such as those in Singapore and Malaysia take this festival seriously; deep in heritage, rituals and strict decorum. Qing Ming in Malaysia is an elaborate family function or a clan feast (usually organized by the respective clan association) to commemorate and honor their late relations at grave site and their distant ancestry of China at home altar, clan temple or a makeshift altar in a Buddhist or Taoist temple. For the oversea community, Qing ming festival is very much a family heritage and at the same, a family obligation. The overseas Chinese see this festival as a time to reflect, honor and give thanks to their forefathers. The oversea Chinese normally visit the graves of their late relations at the nearest weekend of the actual date. According to the ancient custom, grave site veneration is only feasible 10 days before and after Qingming Festival. If the visit is not on the actual date normally veneration before Qingming is encouraged. Qingming Festival in Malaysia and Singapore normally started early in the morning, with the ancestral veneration at home altar- paying respect to the distant ancestors from China. This would be followed by visiting the graves of their close relations in the country. Some would take the extent of filial piety to visit the graves of their ancestors in mainland China. Traditionally, family will burn paper money (paper have imprint of money) and paper replica of some material good such car, maid, home, phone, and etc. In Chinese culture, even though a person died, he/she may still need all of these in the afterlife. There should always an even number of dishes put in front of the grave and a bowl of rice with incense stick upright. Then, family members start taking turn to bow before the tomb of the ancestors. Bowing will go in order, which starts with the most senior member of the family and so on. After the ancestor worship at the gr ave site, the whole family or the whole clan would be feasting the food and drinks they brought for the worship at the site or nearby gardens in the memorial park, signifying family reunion with the ancestors. Hanshi, the day before Qingming, was created by Chonger, the Duke Wen of the state of Jin during the Spring and Autumn Period. The festival was established after Chonger accidentally burned to death his personal friend and servant Jie Zhitui (or Jie Zitui) and Jie Zituis mother. Chonger ordered the hills they were hiding in set on fire in hopes that Jie Zitui would return to his service, but the fire killed Jie and his mother. On Hanshi, people were not allowed to use fires to heat up food, thus nicknaming it the Cold Food Festival. Eventually, 300 years ago, the Hanshi celebration was combined with the Qingming festival, but later abandoned by most people. The Qingming festival holiday holds significance in Chinese Tea culture since this specific day divides the fresh green teas by their picking dates. Green teas made from leaves picked before this date is given the prestigious pre-qingming or mingqian designation which commands a much higher price tag. These teas are prized for having much lighter and subtler aromas than those picked after the festival.(I download the last two paragraph from the internet)

Should Rich Nations Help Poor Nations? Essay -- Poverty Help countries

Should Rich Nations Help Poor Nations?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Imagine living in a community where every minute of everyday you were hungry, underclothed, and at risk for death because you are poor. Now imagine waking up and your biggest problem was which sweater to wear with which jeans. Both are scenarios that occur on a daily basis in our countries, some more extreme than others are. With that in mind a question of whether or not rich nations have an obligation to help those nations if need arises. Professor of philosophy Peter Singer and biologist Garrett Hardin both have very different opinions on this matter and the following paper will focus on their arguments.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Peter Singer’s argument focuses greatly on the nation that citizens of rich nations can with ease help poor nations, without causing any financial burden, therefore, helping those in need should be done.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Singer introduces his objective about the obligation to support the less fortunate nations by stating that, as humans if we can prevent something horrible from occurring, without sacrificing our moral integrity, then helping should not be considered a problem, and we should do it (Singer 331). According to Singer’s idea, the intention is not to push individuals into helping out the poor. His intention is simply trying to make people realize that going out to a fancy restaurant, or taking that cruise around the world, is of less importance than helping out a starving young child who will die due to hunger (Singer 336.) It hardly seems fair, when you look at situations as such and think, â€Å"while I’m in luxury, another is starving.† Singer explains that the argument may be uncommon, but often times people still roll their eyes at the idea of sacrificing something small, in order to help out those in need. Singer asks, why is downsizing such a problem for the â€Å"affluent,† many believe it is not helping that is a problem, it is helping those in distant lands that poses the problem. But if one where to examine the situation and realize that no mother and father would want to deprive their own children from; a good education, clothing, food, and shelter then why let someone else’s children endure the same hardship. By no means is Singer’s intention to promote that we as a wealthy nation are equally responsible for the life and death of people on other nations (Singer 337.)   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  With regards to on... ...s not the position of one to decide the fate of a nation. Both Hardin and Singer do not disagree that there is a problem, however both are passionate about other forms of justice. There are many of us that take everyday necessities for granted, and some of these things those less fortunate may never have a chance to experience. The gap between the rich and the poor expands on a daily basis and will continue throughout the world. It is a question of how we want to change that. Is Singer right, because he says to help everyone, and give up our a little life’s luxuries, because it will be fulfilling in the end, to know we helped out? Or is Hardin right by saying that we should go about our daily routines as we would, because the world is going to have downfalls? It is our responsibility as human beings to decide what is right and what is wrong, this argument should not be decided by an article. Opinions and sides are going to vary†¦. That’s life ! â€Å"No arbitrary regulation, no act of the legislature, can add anything to the capital (Wealth) of the country; it can only force it into artificial channels† John Ramsey McCulloch Scottish Economist Principals of Political Economy   

Economic Interdependence

Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations Author(s): Dale C. Copeland Source: International Security, Vol. 20, No. 4 (Spring, 1996), pp. 5-41 Published by: The MIT Press Stable URL: http://www. jstor. org/stable/2539041 Accessed: 12/10/2010 13:07 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at http://www. jstor. org/page/info/about/policies/terms. jsp.JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use provides, in part, that unless you have obtained prior permission, you may not download an entire issue of a journal or multiple copies of articles, and you may use content in the JSTOR archive only for your personal, non-commercial use. Please contact the publisher regarding any further use of this work. Publisher contact information may be obtained at http://www. jstor. org/action/showPublisher? publisherCode=mitpress.Each copy of any part of a JSTOR transmission must contain the same copyright notice that appears on the screen or printed page of such transmission. JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact [email  protected] org.The MIT Press is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to International Security. http://www. jstor. org Economic DaleC. Copeland Interdependence and War A Theory of Trade Expectations Does economic inter- dependence increase or decrease the probability of war among states? With the Cold War over, this question is taking on importance as trade levels between established powers such as the United States and Russia and emerging powers such as Japan, China, and Western Europe grow to new heights.In this article, I provide a new dynamic theory to help overcome some of the theoretical and empirical problems with current liberal and realist views on the question. The prolonged debate between realists and liberals on the causes of war has been largely a debate about the relative salience of different causal variables. Realists stress such factors as relative power, while liberals focus on the absence or presence of collective security regimes and the pervasiveness of democratic communities. Economic interdependence is the only factor that plays an important causal role in the thinking of both camps, and their perspectives are diametrically opposed. Liberals argue that economic interdependence lowers the likelihood of war by increasing the value of trading over the alternative of aggression: interdependent states would rather trade than invade. As long as high levels of Dale C. Copelands AssistantProfessorn the Department f Governmentnd ForeignAffairsat the i i o a University f Virginia. oFor their helpful comments on previous drafts of this article, I w ould like to thank Robert Art, V. Natasha Copeland, Michael Desch, Angela Doll, John Duffield, Matthew Evangelista, Richard Falkenrath, James Fearon, Joseph Grieco, Atsushi Ishida, Irving Lachow, Alastair lain Johnston, Andrew Kydd, Jack Levy, Lisa Martin, Michael Mastanduno, John Mearsheimer, Andrew Moravcsik, John Owen, Paul Papayoanou, Stephen Rhoads, Gideon Rose, Richard Rosecrance, Len Schoppa, Herman Schwartz, Randall Schweller, Jitsuo Tsuchiyama, David Waldner, and Stephen Walt.This article also benefited from presentations at the Program on International Politics, Economics, and Security at the University of Chicago; the University of Virginia Department of Government's faculty workshop; the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, September 1995; the Olin security workshop at the Center for International Affairs, Harvard University; and the Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University (under whose auspices it was written). A ll errors remain mine. 1.For a summary of the causal variables in the two schools, see John J. Mearsheimer, â€Å"Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War,†InternationalSecurity, Vol. 15, No. 1 (Summer 1990), pp. 5-56; Robert 0. Keohane, â€Å"International Liberalism Reconsidered,† in John Dunn, ed. , The EconomicLimits to ModernPolitics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), pp. 165-194. InternationalSecurity, Vol. 20, No. 4 (Spring 1996), pp. 5-41 ? 1996 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 6 interdependence can be maintained, liberals assert, we have reason for optimism. Realists dismiss the liberal argument, arguing that high interdependence increases rather than decreases the probability of war. In anarchy, states must constantly worry about their security. Accordingly, interdependence-meaning mutual dependence and thus vulnerability-gives states an i ncentive to initiate war, if only to ensure continued access to necessary materials and goods.The unsatisfactory nature of both liberal and realist theories is shown by their difficulties in explaining the run-ups to the two World Wars. The period up to World War I exposes a glaring anomaly for liberal theory: the European powers had reached unprecedented levels of trade, yet that did not prevent them from going to war. Realists certainly have the correlation right-the war was preceded by high interdependence-but trade levels had been high for the previous thirty years; hence, even if interdependence was a necessary condition for the war, it was not sufficient.At first glance, the period from 1920 to 1940 seems to support liberalism over realism. In the 1920s, interdependence was high, and the world was essentially peaceful; in the 1930s, as entrenched protectionism caused interdependence to fall, international tension rose to the point of world war. Yet the two most aggressive stat es in the system during the 1930s, Germany and Japan, were also the most highly dependent despite their efforts towards autarchy, relying on other states, including other great powers, for critical raw materials.Realism thus seems correct in arguing that high dependence may lead to conflict, as states use war to ensure access to vital goods. Realism's problem with the interwar era, however, is that Germany and Japan had been even more dependent in the 1920s, yet they sought war only in the late 1930s when their dependence, although still significant, had fallen. The theory presented in this article-the theory of trade expectations-helps to resolve these problems.The theory starts by clarifying the notion of economic interdependence, fusing the liberal insight that the benefits of trade give states an incentive to avoid war with the realist view that the potential costs of being cut off can push states to war to secure vital goods. The total of the benefits and potential costs of tra de versus autarchy reveals the true level of dependence a state faces, for if trade is completely severed, the state not only loses the gains from trade but also suffers the costs of adjusting its economy to the new situation.Trade expectations theory introduces a new causal variable, the expectations of future trade, examining its impact on the overall expected value of the trading option if a state decides to forgo war. This supplements the static Economicnterdependence War| 7 and I consideration in liberalism and realism of the levels of interdependence at any point in time, with the importance of leaders' dynamic expectations into the future. Levels of interdependence and expectations of future trade, considered simultaneously, lead to new predictions.Interdependence can foster peace, as liberals argue, but this will only be so when states expect that trade levels will be high into the foreseeable future. If highly interdependent states expect that trade will be severely restric ted-that is, if their expectations for future trade are low-realists are likely to be right: the most highly dependent states will be the ones most likely to initiate war, for fear of losing the economic wealth that supports their long-term security. In short, high interdependence can be either peace-inducing or war-inducing, depending on the expectations of future trade.This dynamic perspective helps bridge the gaps within and between current approaches. Separating levels of interdependence from expectations of future trade indicates that states may be pushed into war even if current trade levels are high, if leaders have good reason to suspect that others will cut them off in the future. In such a situation, the expected value of trade will likely be negative, and hence the value of continued peace is also negative, making war an attractive alternative.This insight helps resolve the liberal problem with World War I: despite high trade levels in 1913-14, declining expectations for future trade pushed German leaders to attack, to ensure long-term access to markets and raw materials. Even when current trade is low or non-existent, positive expectations for future trade will produce a positive expected value for trade, and therefore an incentive for continued peace. This helps explain the two main periods of detente between the Cold War superpowers, from 1971 to 1973 and in the late 1980s: positive signs from U. S. eaders that trade would soon be significantly increased coaxed the Soviets into a more cooperative relationship, reducing the probability of war. But in situations of low trade where there is no prospect that high trade levels will be restored in the future, highly dependent states may be pushed into conflict. This was the German and Japanese dilemma before World War II. The article is divided into three sections. The first section reviews liberal and realist theories on the relationship between economic interdependence and the probability of war, and provides a critique of both theories.The second section lays out trade expectations theory The final section examines the diplomatic historical evidence for the new theory against two significant cases: Germany Internationalecurity20:4 | 8 S before World War I and Germany before World War II. The evidence indicates that the new variable, expectations of future trade, helps resolve the anomalies for current theories: in both cases, negative expectations for future trade, combined with high dependence, led leaders into total war out of fear for their long-term economic position and therefore security.TheLiberal nd RealistDebateon Economic nterdependence a I War and The core liberal position is straightforward. 2 Trade provides valuable benefits, or â€Å"gains from trade,† to any particular state. A dependent state should therefore seek to avoid war, since peaceful trading gives it all the benefits of close ties without any of the costs and risks of war. Trade pays more than w ar, so dependent states should prefer to trade not invade. This argument is often supported by the auxiliary proposition that modern technology greatly increases the costs and risks of aggression, making the trading option even more rational.The argument was first made popular in the 1850s by Richard Cobden, who asserted that free trade â€Å"unites† states, â€Å"making each equally anxious for the prosperity and happiness of both. â€Å"3 This view was restated in The GreatIllusion by Norman Angell just prior to World War I and again in 1933. Angell saw states having to choose between new ways of thinking, namely peaceful trade, and the â€Å"old method† of power politics. Even if war was once profitable, modernization now makes it impossible to â€Å"enrich† oneself through force; indeed, by destroying trading bonds, war is â€Å"commercially suicidal. 4 Why do wars nevertheless occur? While the start of World War I just after The GreatIllusion's initial p ublication might seem to refute his thesis, Angell in 2. Four other subsidiary liberal arguments, employing intervening variables, are not sufficiently compelling to discuss here. The first suggests that high trade levels promote domestic prosperity, thereby lessening the internal problems that push leaders into war. The second argues that interdependence helps to foster increased understanding between peoples, which reduces the misunderstandings that lead to war.The third asserts that trade alters the domestic structure of states, heightening the influence of groups with a vested interest in peaceful trade. The final argument contends that trade has the â€Å"spill-over† effect of increasing political ties between trading partners, thus improving the prospects for long-term cooperation. For an critical analysis of these views, see Dale Copeland, â€Å"Economic Interdependence and the Outbreak of War,†paper presented to University of Virginia Department of Government's faculty workshop, March 1995. 3. Richard Cobden, The Political Writings of Richard Cobden (London: T.Fischer Unwin, 1903), p. 225. 4. Norman Angell, The GreatIllusion, 2d ed. (New York: G. P Putnam's Sons, 1933), pp. 33, 59-60, 87-89. Economicnterdependence WarI 9 I and the 1933 edition argued that the debacle simply confirmed the unprofitability of modern wars. He thus upheld the common liberal view that wars, especially major wars, result from the misperceptions of leaders caught up in the outmoded belief that war still pays. Accordingly, his is â€Å"not a plea for the impossibility of war †¦ but for its futility,† since â€Å"our ignorance on this matter makes war not only possible, but extremely likely. 5 In short, if leaders fail to see how unprofitable war is compared to the benefits of trade, they may still erroneously choose the former. Richard Rosecrance provides the most extensive update of the CobdenAngell thesis to the nuclear era. States must choose betwe en being â€Å"trading states,† concerned with promoting wealth through commerce, and â€Å"territorial states,† obsessed with military expansion. Modern conditions push states towards a predominantly trading mode: wars are not only too costly, but with the peaceful trading option, â€Å"the benefits that one nation gains from trade can also be realized by others. When the system is highly interdependent, therefore, the â€Å"incentive to wage war is absent,† since â€Å"trading states recognize that they can do better through internal economic development sustained by a worldwide market for their goods and services than by trying to conquer and assimilate large tracts of land. â€Å"6 Rosecrance thus neatly summarizes the liberal view that high interdependence fosters peace by making trading more profitable than invading. 7 5. Ibid. , pp. 59-62, 256. i S a 6. RichardRosecrance,TheRise of the Trading tate:Commercend Conquestn the ModernWorld (New York: Basic Books, 1986), pp. 3-14; 24-25 (emphasis added); see also Rosecrance, â€Å"War, a Trade and Interdependence,† in James N. Rosenau and Hylke Tromp, eds. , Interdependence nd Conflict in WorldPolitics (Aldershot, U. K. : Avebury, 1989), pp. 48-57; Rosecrance, â€Å"A New Concert of Powers,† Foreign Affairs, Vol. 71, No. 2 (Spring 1992), pp. 64-82. 7. A book often seen as a statement on the peace-inducing effects of interdependence-Robert 0. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, Power and Interdependence(Boston: Little, Brown, 1977)-actually contains no such causal argument. For Keohane and Nye, â€Å"complex interdependence† is more peaceful by definition: it is a valuable concept for analyzing the political process† only when military force is â€Å"unthinkable† (pp. 29, 24). In the second edition: â€Å"since we define complex interdependence in terms of [policy] goals and instruments,† arguments â€Å"about how goals and instruments are affected by th e degree to which a situation approximates complex interdependence or realism will be tautological. † Thus, â€Å"we are left essentially with two dependent variables: changes in agendas and changes in the roles of international organizations. † Keohane and Nye, Power and Interdependence, d ed. (Glenview, Ill. Scott, Foresman, 1989), p. 255; emphasis in original. 2 The dependent variable of this article-the likelihood of war-is nowhere to be found, which is not surprising, since it is assumed away. Other works on interdependence from the 1970s, which largely examined dependent variables other than war, are discussed in Copeland, â€Å"Economic Interdependence and the Outbreak of War. † InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 10 Realists turn the liberal argument on its head, arguing that economic interdependence not only fails to promote peace, but in fact heightens the likelihood of war. States concerned about security will dislike dependence, since it means that crucial i mported goods could be cut off during a crisis. This problem is particularly acute for imports like oil and raw materials; while they may be only a small percentage of the total import bill, without them most modern economies would collapse. Consequently, states dependent on others for vital goods have an increased incentive to go to war to assure themselves of continued access of supply. Neorealist Kenneth Waltz puts the argument as follows: actors within a domestic polity have little reason to fear the dependence that goes with specialization.The anarchic structure of international politics, however, makes states worry about their vulnerability, thus compelling them â€Å"to control what they depend on or to lessen the extent of their dependency. † For Waltz, it is this â€Å"simple thought† that explains, among other things, â€Å"their imperial thrusts to widen the scope of their control. â€Å"9 For John Mearsheimer, nations that â€Å"depend on others for crit ical economic supplies will fear cutoff or blackmail in time of crisis or war. † Consequently, â€Å"they may try to extend political control to the source of supply, giving rise to conflict with the source or with its other customers. Interdependence, therefore, â€Å"will probably lead to greater security competition. â€Å"10 8. One might contend that realists doubt the causal importance of economic interdependence, since relative gains concerns convince great powers to avoid becoming dependent in the first place. Aside from arguments showing why states may cooperate despite concerns for relative gains (see essays by Powell, Snidal, and Keohane in David A. Baldwin, ed. , Neorealismand Neoliberalism:The Contemporary ebate [New York: Columbia University Press, 1993]; Dale Copeland, â€Å"Why Relative DGains Concerns May Promote Economic Cooperation: A Realist Explanation for Great Power Interdependence,† presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies A ssociation, San Diego, April 1996), the argument is empirically false. Periods of high interdependence have arisen even when the security competition between great powers was particularly intense, such as from 1880 to 1914, as Waltz acknowledges. Kenneth Waltz, â€Å"The Myth of Interdependence,† in Ray Maghoori and Bennett Ramberg, Globalism versus Realism (Boulder, Colo. : Westview Press, 1982), p. 83.Since the reality of high interdependence cannot be argued or assumed away, I focus here on the core realist claim that whenever high levels of interdependence are reached, for whatever reason, war is more likely. 9. Kenneth Waltz, Theory of InternationalPolitics (New York: Random House, 1979), p. 106. 10. John J. Mearsheimer, â€Å"Disorder Restored,† in Graham Allison and Gregory F Treverton, eds. , Rethinking America's Security (New York: W. W. Norton, 1992), p. 223; Mearsheimer, â€Å"Back to the Future,† p. 45. See also Robert Gilpin, â€Å"Economic Interde pendence and National Security in Historical Perspective,† in Klaus Knorr and Frank N.Trager, eds. , Economic Issues and National Security (Lawrence, Kan. : Allen, 1977), p. 29. Adopting the realist argument, but emphasizing how dependence leads states to adopt destabilizing offensive strategies, is Anne Uchitel, â€Å"Interdepend- Economicnterdependence War| 11 and I This modern realist understanding of economic interdependence and war finds its roots in mercantilist writings dating from the seventeenth century Mercantilists saw states as locked in a competition for relative power and for the wealth that underpins that power. For mercantilists, imperial expansionthe acquisition of colonies-is driven by the state's need to secure greater control over sources of supply and markets for its goods, and to build relative power in the process. By allowing the metropole and the colonies to specialize in production and trade of complementary products (particularly manufactured goods for raw materials), while ensuring political control over the process, colonies â€Å"opened up the possibility of providing a system of supply within a self-contained empire. â€Å"‘2 In this, we see the underpinning for the neorealist view that interdependence leads to war.Mercantilist imperialism represents a reaction to a state's dependence; states reduce their fears of external specialization by increasing internal specialization within a now larger political realm. The imperial state as it expands thus acquires more and more of the characteristics of Waltz's domestic polity, with its hierarchy of specialized functions secure from the unpredictable policies of others. In sum, realists seek to emphasize one main point: political concerns driven by anarchy must be injected into the liberal calculus.Since states must be primarily concerned with security and therefore with control over resources and markets, one must discount the liberal optimism that great trading partners will always continue to be great trading partners simply because both states benefit absolutely. Accordingly, a state vulnerable to another's policies because of dependence will tend to use force to overcome that vulnerability. ence and Instability,† in Jack Snyder and Robert Jervis, eds. , Coping with Complexityin the International System (Boulder, Colo. : Westview Press, 1993), pp. 43-264. For Barry Buzan, since liberal free-trading systems are dependent on a hegemon which invariably declines, such systems are destined to fall into â€Å"malevolent† mercantilist practices, as states scramble to control access to goods formerly safeguarded by the hegemon. Avoiding the liberal system altogether, through a â€Å"benign† mercantilist system of self-sufficient trading blocs, will be therefore preferred. Buzan, â€Å"Economic Structure and International Security: The Limits of the Liberal Case,† International Organization, Vol. 8, No. 4 (Autumn 1984), esp. pp . 597, 609-623. For a similar argument, see Robert Gilpin, U. S. Power and the Multinational Corporation(New York: Basic Books), 1975, p. 259. 11. See Eli F Heckscher, Mercantilism, vol. 2, trans. Mendel Shapiro (London: George Allen, 1931), p. 15; Jacob Viner, â€Å"Power Versus Plenty as Objectives of Foreign Policy in the Seventeenth and Eighteenth Centuries,† World Politics, Vol. 1, No. 1 (October 1948), p. 10; David A. Baldwin, Economic Statecraft(Princeton, N. J. : Princeton University Press, 1985), chap. . 12. Heckscher, Mercantilism, vol. 2, p. 40. InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 12 A COMPARISON OF THE LIBERAL AND REALIST PERSPECTIVES While the liberal and the realist arguments display critical differences, they possess one important similarity: the causal logic of both perspectives is founded on an individual state's decision-making process. That is, while the two camps freely use the term â€Å"interdependence,† both derive predictions from with their own specif ic how particular decision-making units-states-deal dependence.This allows both theories to handle situations of â€Å"asymmetric interdependence,† where one state in a dyad is more dependent than the other. Their predictions are internally consistent, but opposed: liberals argue that the more dependent state is less likely to initiate conflict, since it has more to lose from breaking economic ties;13 realists maintain that this state is more likely to initiate conflict, to escape its vulnerability. The main difference between liberals and realists has to do with their emphasis on the benefits versus the costs of interdependence.The realist argument highlights an aspect that is severely downplayed in the liberal argument, namely, consideration of the potential costs from the severing of a trading relationship. Most liberals, if pressed, would probably accept David Baldwin's conceptualization of dependence as the opportunity costs a state would experience should trade end. Yet Baldwin's opportunity costs are only the loss of the benefits from trade received after a state moves from autarchy. 14 It is this understanding of opportunity costs that is followed in the most comprehensive liberal argument for interdependence and peace, that of Rosecrance.There is little sense in Rosecrance's work that a state's decision to specialize and thus to restructure its economy radically can entail huge â€Å"costs of adjustment† should trade be later severed, nor that such costs can actually put the state in a far worse position than if it had never moved from autarchy in the first place. 15 This is the concern of realists when they talk about dependence on 13. See Keohane and Nye, â€Å"World Politics and the International Economic System,† in C. Fred Bergsten, ed. , The Future of the InternationalEconomicOrder (Lexington: D. C.Heath, 1973), pp. 121122; Neil R. Richardson and Charles W. Kegley, â€Å"Trade Dependence and Foreign Policy Compliance,† International Studies Quarterly,Vol. 24, No. 2 (June 1980), pp. 191-222. 14. David A. Baldwin, â€Å"Interdependence and Power: A Conceptual Analysis,† International Organization, Vol. 34, No. 4 (Autumn 1980), pp. 478, 482-484, 489; Baldwin, â€Å"The Power of Positive Sanctions,† WorldPolitics, Vol. 24, No. 1 (October 1971), pp. 19-38; Albert 0. Hirschman, National Power and the Structure of Foreign Trade,exp. ed. (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1980), chap. . 15. On the costs of adjustment, see Ruth Arad, Seev Hirsch, and Alfred Tovias, The Economicsof Peacemaking(New York: St. Martin's Press, 1983), pp. 26-34. Keohane and Nye examine the â€Å"costs of adjusting† as an integral part of â€Å"vulnerability† interdependence (Power and Interdependence, p. 13). Yet they do not establish the original autarchic position as a baseline for examining these costs independently from the benefits of trade forgone; this baseline is incorporated later i n EconomicInterdependence nd War | 13 a â€Å"vital goods† such as oil.A state that chooses not to buy oil from outsiders forgoes certain benefits of trade, but by operating on domestic energy sources, it avoids the heavy penalty experienced by a state that does base its industrial structure on imported oil, only to find itself cut off from supplies. That Rosecrance minimizes this realist concern is evident. In an explicit effort to refute Waltz's definition of interdependence as â€Å"a trading link which ‘is costly to break',† Rosecrance contends that â€Å"to measure interdependence in this way misses the essence of the concept. His subsequent discussion emphasizes only the benefits that states give up if they choose not to trade (his â€Å"opportunity costs†), and makes no mention of any potentially severe costs of adjustment. In fact, he argues that dependence on such things as foreign sources of energy is really no different than relying on outsider s for â€Å"fashions† or different makes of cars; if trade is cut off, a state loses only â€Å"consumer choice. † Recognition that the whole industrial structure of a state might be undermined or destroyed by an adversary's severing of vital trade is absent. 6 Rosecrance is reluctant to acknowledge realist concerns, perhaps because to do so would imply that dependent states might be more willing to go to war, as realists maintain, while Rosecrance is arguing that they are less willing to do so. 17 This points to a critical distinction between liberalism and realism that illuminates the liberal understanding of why wars ultimately occur. For liberals, interdependence does not have a downside that might push states into war, as realists contend. Rather, interdependence is seen to operate as a restraint on aggressive tendencies arising from the domestic or individual levels.If interdependence becomes low, this restraint is taken away, allowing the aggressive tendencies t o dominate. To borrow a metaphor from Plato: for liberals, inter- building the new theory. Liberals also consider â€Å"costs† in terms of losses in â€Å"autonomy† due to trade ties; see Richard N. Cooper, The Economicsof Interdependence New York:McGraw Hill, 1968), ( pp. 4-12; Rosecrance, Rise of the TradingState, pp. 39-41, 235. Note, however, that these are costs that go hand in hand with high trade, not costs that are experienced if trade is cut off.Hence, these losses in autonomy are more accurately considered as a form of sensitivity interdependencecosts incurred when trade is ongoing-rather than as a form of â€Å"vulnerability† interdependence so worrying to realists. On this, see Keohane and Nye, â€Å"International Interdependence and Integration,† in Fred I. Greenstein and Nelson W. Polsby, eds. , Handbook of Political Science, vol. 8 (Reading, Mass. : Addison-Wesley, 1975), pp. 368-370. 16. Rosecrance, Rise of the Trading State, pp. 144-145. In the appendix, an iterated prisoner's dilemma is used to show the â€Å"concrete benefits† from trade cooperation.If states decide not to cooperate, they simply â€Å"[do] not benefit†; pp. 233-236. 17. Rosecrance occasionally seems to accept that some goods are more vital than others, but even here he reiterates the liberal argument: â€Å"Countries dependent on the world economy for markets, assistance, and critical raw materials are doubly hesitant to embark on military adventures†; ibid. , p. 133, emphasis added. InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 14 dependence operates like the reins on the dark horse of inner passions; it provides a material incentive to stay at peace, even when there are internal predispositions towards aggression.Remove the reins, however, and these passions are free to roam as they will. 18 This point becomes clearer as one examines Rosecrance's explanations for the two World Wars. World War II, for Rosecrance, was ultimately domestically d riven. The main aggressors saw war as a means to cope with the upheavals flowing from â€Å"social discontent and chaos† and the â€Å"danger of left-wing revolutions†; given these upheavals, it is â€Å"not surprising that the territorial and military-political system [i. e. , war] emerged as an acceptable alternative to more than one state. Connecting the Second World War to causes arising from the unit level in the First World War,he continues: â€Å"If Germany, Italy, and Japan did not fulfill their territorial ambitions at the end of World War I, they might develop even more nationalistic and solidaristic regimes and try again. â€Å"19With trade and therefore interdependence at low levels in the 1930s, â€Å"economics offered no alternative possibility†; it failed to provide what he later refers to as a â€Å"mitigat[ing]† or â€Å"restraining† influence on unit-level motives for war. 0 World War I is a problematic case for Rosecrance, as it was for Angell, since the great powers went to war even though trade levels were still high. Like Angell, Rosecrance's main defense of liberalism is that leaders simply did not see how beneficial interdependence was, and how costly war would be. Due to outmoded ideas and unit-level pathologies, they misperceived the situation; hence, interdependence could not operate as it should, as a restraint on aggression. He talks about leaders' obsession with â€Å"nationalist ambitions† and â€Å"balance of power politics. He suggests that â€Å"no pre-1914 statesman or financier was fully aware of the damage that war would do to the European body economic† because of the irrational belief that â€Å"[war] would be over very 18. See Plato's Phaedrus in Phaedrus and Letters VII and VIII, trans. Walter Hamilton (Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1973), sections 246-256. The historical roots of this view are explicated in f b i P Albert 0. Hirschman,The Passionsand the Interests: olitic alArgumentsor Capitalism efore ts Triumph(Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1977).He quotes Montesquieu (ibid. , p. 73): â€Å"It is fortunate for men to be in a situation in which, though their passions may prompt them to be wicked, they have nevertheless an interest in not being so. † 19. Rosecrance, Rise of the TradingState, pp. 102-103 (see also p. 111). Rosecrance does point out that Germany and Japan apparently went to war also to gain raw materials (ibid. , p. 108). He does not argue, however, that these two states were more dependent than other states for such materials; to have done so would suggest the validity of the realist logic. 0. See ibid. , pp. 106, 123, 150, 162. EconomicInterdependence nd War | 15 a quickly. â€Å"21At one point, he even seems to cast doubt on the efficacy of interdependence as a restraint on aggression: One should not place too much emphasis upon the existence of interdependence per se. European nations in 1913 relied upon the trade and investment that flowed between them; that did not prevent the political crisis which led to †¦ World War I. Interdependence only constrains national policy if leaders accept and agree to work within its limits. 22It thus appears that Rosecrance cannot really envision interdependence as being anything but a â€Å"constraint† or â€Å"restraint† on unit-level tendencies to aggress. This view is consistent with the general liberal perspective that all wars are ultimately driven by unit-level phenomena such as misperceptions, authoritarianism, ideology, and internal social conflict. Rosecrance's historical understanding of the World War II, for example, would fit nicely with the â€Å"democratic peace† literature: had all the states in 1939 been democratic, war would probably ot have occurred despite the disrupted global economic situation, but since some states were not democratic, their aggressive domestic forces became unfettered once interdependence had declined. The idea that economic factors by themselves can push states to aggress-an argument consistent with neorealism and the alternative theory I will present below-is outside the realm of liberal thought, since it would imply that purely systemic forces can be responsible for war, largely regardless of unit-level phenomena. 3 While liberal theory certainly downplays the realist concern for the potential costs of severed trade, it is also clear that realists slight the positive role the benefits of trade can have on a state's choice between peace and war. In the next section, I bring together the liberal emphasis on benefits with the realist emphasis on costs to create a framework for understanding the true level of dependence a state faces. This section also seeks to correct the most significant 21. See ibid. , pp. 18-19, 88, 96-97, 99, 150. 22. Ibid. , p. 141 (see also p. 150).The argument here borders on being non-falsifiable: disconfirming cases where war occurs despite hig h interdependence can be sidestepped by saying simply that states did not â€Å"accept† being peaceful traders. Note as well that if states have already decided to be peaceful, then interdependence is not needed as a restraint. 23. On liberalism's inherently unit-level orientation to conflict, see Andrew Moravcsik, â€Å"Liberalism and International Relations Theory,† Working Paper, Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 1992; Michael Howard, War and the LiberalConscience (New Brunswick: Rutgers University Press, 1978).On the democratic peace argument, see Bruce Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1993). InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 16 error in both liberal and realist theories, namely, their lack of theoretical attention to the dynamics of state expectations for the future. o Trade r Invade? A Theory f Trade xpectations E o This section introduces the theory of trade expectations.This theory extends liberal and realist views regarding interdependence and war, by synthesizing their strengths while formulating a dynamic perspective on state decision-making that is at best only implicit in current approaches. The strength of liberalism lies in its consideration of how the benefits or gains from trade give states a material incentive to avoid war, even when they have unit-level predispositions to favor it. The strength of realism is its recognition that states may be vulnerable to the potential costs of being cut off from trade on which they depend for wealth and ultimately security.Current theories, however, lack a way to fuse the benefits of trade and the costs of severed trade into one theoretical framework. More significantly, these theories lack an understanding of how rational decision-makers incorporate the future trading environment into their choice between peace and war. Both liberalism and realism often refer to the future trading environment, particularly in empirical analyses. Bu t in constructing a theoretical logic, the two camps consider the future only within their own ideological presuppositions.Liberals, assuming that states seek to maximize absolute welfare, maintain that situations of high trade should continue into the foreseeable future as long as states are rational; such actors have no reason to forsake the benefits from trade, especially if defection from the trading arrangement will only lead to retaliation. 24 Given this presupposition, liberals can argue that interdependence-as reflected in high trade at any particular moment in time-will foster peace, given the benefits of trade over war.Realists, assuming states seek to maximize security, argue that concerns for relative power and autonomy will eventually push some states to sever trade ties (at least in the absence of a hegemon). Hence, realists can insist that interdependence, again manifest as high trade at any moment in time, drives dependent states to initiate war now to escape potenti al vulnerability later. For the purposes of forging strong theories, however, trading patterns cannot be simply assumed a priori to match the stipulations of either liberalism or of realism.Trade levels fluctuate significantly over time, both for the system as a 24. See Rosecrance, Rise of the TradingState, appendix. EconomicInterdependence nd War | 17 a whole and particularly between specific trading partners, as the last two centuries demonstrate. Accordingly, we need a theory that incorporates how a state's expectations of its trading environment-either optimistic or pessimistic-affect its decision-calculus for war or peace. This is where the new theory makes its most significant departure.Liberalism and realism are theories of â€Å"comparative statics,† drawing predictions from a snapshot of the level of interdependence at a single point in time. The new theory, on the other hand, is dynamic in its internal structure: it provides a new variable, the â€Å"expectations o f future trade,† that incorporates in the theoretical logic an actor's sense of the future trends and possibilities. 25 This variable is essential to any leader's determination not just of the immediate value of peace versus war at a particular moment in time, but of the overall expected value of peace and war over the foreseeable future.From consideration of the expectations-of-future-trade variable along with a state's level of dependence, one can derive a consistent deductive theory of state decision-making showing the conditions under which high interdependence will lead to peace or to war. High interdependence can be peace-inducing, as liberals maintain, as long as states expect future trade levels to be high in the future: positive expectations for future trade will lead dependent states to assign a high expected value to a continuation of peaceful trade, making war the less appealing option.If, however, a highly dependent state expects future trade to be low due to the policy decisions of the other side, then realists are likely to be correct: the state will attach a low or even negative expected value to continued peace without trade, making war an attractive alternative if its expected value is greater than peace. Moreover, since a negative expected value of trade implies a long-term decline in power, even if war is not profitable per se, it may be chosen as the lesser of two evils. 26 5. On the differences between comparative statics and dynamic analyses that incorporate the future, see Eugene Silberberg, The Structure of Economics, 2d ed. (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1990), chaps. 1, 12, and 18. 26. That is, war is rational if it has either a higher net positive value or a lower net negative value. The theory thus works regardless of whether states are innately â€Å"greedy†-seeking positive gains from war-or simply security-seekers desiring to minimize long-term threats. See Charles L.Glaser, â€Å"Political Consequences of Military Strate gy: Expanding and Refining the Spiral and Deterrence Models,† WorldPolitics, Vol. 44, No. 4 (July 1992), pp. 497-538. By connecting the trading environment to fears about relative decline, I draw upon the notion that declining states launch preventive wars to uphold their waning security. Elsewhere, I build a solely power-driven theory showing why states faced with deep and inevitable decline initiate major wars. Dale Copeland, â€Å"Neorealism and the Myth of Bipolar Stability: Toward a New Dynamic Realist Theory of Major War,† Security Studies, Vol. , No. 3 (Spring 1996). S 2 International ecurity 0:4 | 18 The deductive logic of the alternative theory, as with liberalism and realism, centers on an individual state's efforts to manage its own situation of dependence. Consider a two-actor scenario, where one state â€Å"A† may trade with another state â€Å"B. † If state A moves away from the initial position of autarchy to begin trading, and trade is free and open, it will expect to receive the benefits of trade stressed by liberals, namely, the incremental increase in A's total welfare due to trade. 7 Note that a state can still be aware of the â€Å"benefits of trade† even if present trade is non-existent, since they represent the potential gains from trade that would accrue to the state should trade levels become high in the future. 28It is a state's ability to foresee future potential benefits that allows it to attach a high expected value to the peaceful trading option even when current trade levels are low (as long as it expects current restrictions to be relaxed). When a state trades, it specializes in and exports goods in which it enjoys a comparative advantage, while forgoing the production of other goods, which it then imports.This process of specialization, however, entails potentially large costs of adjustment if trade is subsequently cut off. This is especially so in the modern world if the state becomes dependen t on foreign oil and certain raw materials. With the economy's capital infrastructure (machines, factories, transportation systems, etc. ) geared to function only with such vital goods, a severing of trade would impose huge costs as the economy struggles to cope with the new no-trade situation. 29 In short, the severing of trade, as realists would argue, would put the state in a situation far worse than if it had never specialized in the first place.This analysis leads to a clearer understanding of any particular state's total level of â€Å"dependence. † On a bilateral basis, that level is represented by the sum of the benefits that the state would receive from free and open trade with another state (versus autarchy), and the costs to the state of being cut off from that trade after having specialized (versus autarchy). If state A started with an economy of 100 units of GNP before any trade with B (the autarchic position), and open trade with B would mean economic expansion to a level of 110 units of GNP on an ongoing basis, then the â€Å"benefits of trade† could be considered as 10 units.If the specialization that trade entails, however, would mean the 27. This is consistent with standard trade theory. See Richard E. Caves and Ronald W. Jones, World Tradeand Payments, 4th ed. (Boston: Little Brown, 1985), chaps. 3-4. 28. I thank Andrew Moravcsik for discussions on the potential benefits of trade. 29. The capital investments represent â€Å"sunk costs† not easily recouped. See Arad, Hirsch, and Tovias, The Economicsof Peacemaking,pp. 26-28. EconomicInterdependence nd War I 19 a conomy would fall to 85 units should B sever trade ties, then the â€Å"costs of severed trade† would be 15 units versus autarchy. State A's total dependence level would thus be the benefits of trade plus the costs of severed trade after specialization, or 25 units. The dependence level will itself be a function of such parameters as the overall compatibili ties of the two economies for trade, the degree of A's need for vital goods such as oil and raw materials, and the availability of alternative suppliers and markets.Thus if A's need for trade with B is great because the economies are highly compatible (say, in terms of mutual comparative advantages), B has valuable natural resources that A lacks, and A has few other countries to turn to, then A's dependence can be considered high. 30 In deciding between peace and war, however, a state can not refer simply to its dependence level. Rather, it must determine the overall expected value of trade and therefore the value of continued peace into the foreseeable future.The benefits of trade and the costs of severed trade on their own say nothing about this expected value. Dynamic expectations of future trade must be brought in. If the state has positive expectations that the other will maintain free and open trade over the long term, then the expected value of trade will be close to the valu e of the benefits of trade. On the other hand, if the state, after having specialized, comes to expect that trade will be severed by the trading partner, then the expected value of trade may be highly negative, that is, close to the value of the costs of severed trade.In essence, the expected value of trade may be anywhere between the two extremes, depending on a state's estimate of the expected probability of securing open trade, or of being cut off. 31 This leads to a crucial hypothesis. For any given expected value of war, we can predict that the lower the expectations of future trade, the lower the 30. On the importance of altematives, see Baldwin, â€Å"Interdependence and Power,† p. 482; Keohane and Nye, Power and Interdependence, . 13. It is worth remembering that alternative suppliers p nd markets are only valuable in reducing A's dependence if A can get access to them. If B is able not only to sever bilateral trade, but also to blockade A to prevent third-party tradi ng, then A effectively has no alternatives and is therefore dependent. This was the situation for Japan vis-a-vis the United States before 1941 regarding oil imports. 31. This line of reasoning is developed formally in Dale Copeland, â€Å"Modelling Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations,† paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, September 1995.It is consistent with consideration of the â€Å"probability of transaction† as a determinant of expected national income in Arad, Hirsch, and Tovias, The Economicof Peacemaking,pp. 37-43, although they do not employ expectations of future trade as a theoretical variable affecting the likelihood of war. InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 20 expected value of trade, and therefore the more likely it is that war will be chosen. It is important to note that the expected value of trade will not be based on the level of trade at a particular moment in time, but u pon the stream of expected trade levels into the future.It really does not matter that trade is high today: if state A knows that B will cut all trade tomorrow and shows no signs of being willing to restore it later, the expected value of trade would be negative. Similarly, it does not matter if there is little or no trade at present: if state A is confident that B is committed to freer trade in the future, the expected value of trade would be positive. The fact that the expected value of trade can be negative even if present trade is high, due to low expectations for future trade, goes a long way towards resolving such manifest anomalies for liberal theory as German aggression in World War I.Despite high levels of trade up to 1914, German leaders had good reason to believe that the other great powers would undermine this trade into the future; hence, a war to secure control over raw materials and markets was required for the long-term security of the German nation. Since the expect ed value of trade can be positive even though present trade is low, due to high expectations for future trade, we can also understand such phenomena as the periods of detente in U. S. -Soviet relations during the Cold War (1971-73 and after 1985).While East-West trade was still relatively low during these times, the Soviet need for Western technology, combined with a growing belief that large increases in trade with the West would be forthcoming, gave the Soviets a high enough expected value of trade to convince them to be more accommodating in superpower relations. 32 In making the final decision between peace and war, however, a rational state will have to compare the expected value of trade to the expected value of going to war with the other state. The expected value of war, as a realist would emphasize, cannot be ascertained without considering the relative power balance.As one state moves from a position of relative inferiority in economic and military power to relative superi ority, the expected value of war will move from negative to positive or even highly positive. This proposition follows directly from the insights of deterrence theory: the larger the state in relative size, the higher the probability of winning a victory, while the lower the costs of fighting the war. 33 32. The U. S. -Soviet Cold War case is covered in Copeland, â€Å"Modelling Economic Interdependence and War. † 33. See Alexander L.George and Richard Smoke, Deterrencein AmericanForeign Policy: Theoryand Practice (New York: Columbia University Press, 1974), chaps. 2-3. a EconomicInterdependence nd War | 21 Hence, if victory entails occupying the other state and absorbing its economy, war can take on a very positive expected value when a large power attacks a small state. 34 For example, if Iraq had been allowed to hold on to Kuwait after its August 1990 invasion, war for Iraq would certainly have â€Å"paid. † Similarly, Czechoslovakia was an easy and attractive targe t for Germany by 1938-39, as were the other smaller states of Europe, nd evidence suggests that war against these nations was indeed profitable for the Nazis. 35 On the other hand, war between more equal great powers is likely to have a much lower or even negative expected value. The Spartan leadership took Sparta into war against Athens in 431 BC, for example, under no illusions that war would be a profitable venture. 36 While the Athenian economy presented a large prize should victory be attained, war with a near-equal adversary could be expected to be very costly, with a low likelihood of victory.Where we would anticipate a low or negative expected value to the option of war, the expectations-of-future-trade variable should have a determinant effect on the likelihood of war. If state A has positive expectations for future trade with B, and A and B are roughly equal in relative power, then state A will assign a high expected value to continued peaceful trade, will compare this to the low or negative expected value for invasion, and will choose peace as the rational strategy.The higher A's dependence and the higher the expectations for future trade, the higher the expected value for peaceful trade, and therefore the more likely A is to avoid war. But if state A is dependent and has negative expectations for future trade with B, then the expected value of trade will be very low or negative. If the expected value for trade is lower than the expected value for invasion, war becomes the rational choice, and this is so even when the expected value of invasion is itself negative: war becomes the lesser of two evils. 7 34. This is developed formally in Copeland, â€Å"Modelling Economic Interdependence and War. † 35. See Peter Liberman, â€Å"Does Conquest Pay? The Exploitation of Occupied Industrial Economies† (Ph. D. diss. , Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1991). 36. Thucydides, The Peloponnesian War,trans. Rex Warner (Harmondsworth: Penguin, 1954), Book 1, lines 80-88. 37. When one state is very large and the other very small, it is harder to sort out the effects of interdependence from the effects of relative power, at least in actual cases of war.The expected value of war for the superior state is likely to be quite positive anyway, and thus will tend to overshadow the expected value of trade even when the state has positive expectations of future trade. Here, the superior state simply chooses war as the â€Å"greater of two goods. † This choice would not be altered by any diminution of trade expectations; indeed, war would simply be even more rational as the expected value of trade (and therefore peace) falls.War in such a situation of marked power imbalance and low expectations of future trade is thus overdetermined; it would be difficult to tell whether war occurred because of the positive expected value of war, the negative expected value of trade, or both. Thus, in my empirical analysis, I examine cases wh ere great powers InternationalSecurity 20:4 | 22 Until now, I have talked about state A's â€Å"expectations of future trade† as though they were an essentially exogenous, that is, as though state B, in its willingness to trade with A, were not affected by A's behavior.If, however, state A, by making political, military, or economic concessions, can induce B to relax trading restrictions, then A's low expectations for future trade may be raised. This suggests that the effects of diplomacy and bargaining need to be integrated into any extended historical analysis. 38 The probability of B trading with A is never completely independent of A's actions, since there is always some concession that A could make to get B to commit to higher trade levels over the long term.But the problem for A is that B's price for high trade may be unacceptable in that it undermines A's internal stability or its external power position. To take an extreme example, if B were to demand, as the price fo r higher trade, that A unilaterally disarm and allow B to occupy A with its army, it is hard to imagine A accepting such a deal. If B remains unwilling to budge from such an exorbitant demand, then it is fair to say that A's pessimistic expectation for future trade is exogenous; there is little A can do, short of national suicide, to improve the likelihood of trade.Thus state A, in estimating B's probability of trading with A, will refer to many indicators suggesting how â€Å"reasonable† B will be into the future, that is, how willing B will be to trade, and at what price. One may think of these indicators simply as causal factors affecting the variable â€Å"expectations of future trade. † Such systemic factors as B's economic competitiveness, B's rate of depletion of raw materials and energy reserves (affecting its future export ability), and military pressures constraining B's trade with A will be important.German leaders before World War I, for example, had good r eason to believe that Britain would be forced to move to imperial preference to protect its empire from the German economic challenge and to lend support to its entente partners. Japanese leaders in the late 1930s recognized that the United States would have to cut back on oil and iron exports to Japan as U. S. reserves were attacked great powers in long and costly total wars. While these cases do not cover the universe of wars, they do isolate the role of economic interdependence and changing expectations of future trade in the outbreak of war. 8. Given space constraints, my case studies in this article do not provide a full analysis of the bargaining dynamic. For an analysis of interstate economic bargaining, see Baldwin, Economic Statecraft,chap. 6; R. Harrison Wagner, â€Å"Economic Interdependence, Bargaining Power, and Political Influence,† InternationalOrganization,Vol. 42, No. 3 (Summer 1988), pp. 461-483. Note also that there may be a causal feedback loop, whereby in creasing fears of war lead others to reduce trade, which in turn heightens the incentive of dependent states to initiate war.These and other issues involving the endogeneity of trade expectations are addressed more fully in my book manuscript, â€Å"Economic Interdependence and War. † EconomicInterdependence nd War | 23 a depleted or needed to supply a military buildup (even one directed only at Germany). Such systemic pressures on B to reduce trade with A will foster negative expectations of future trade among A's leaders. But domestic and personal factors can also play a significant role in the exogenous rise or decline in B's likelihood of trading with A, indicating hat the assumption that B is a â€Å"unitary actor† must be relaxed to some degree when examining history. 39 In 1972, for example, the Soviets saw Nixon and Kissinger as firmly in control of American policy, and therefore able to carry through on commitments to increase East-West trade. Two years later, however, such a positive expectation for future trade could not be sustained in the wake of Watergate and the reassertion of Congressional power, at least at a price which was reasonable to the Soviets.This had much to do with the failure of detente, as I argue elsewhere. 40 A comparison of the arguments of trade expectations theory with those of liberal and realist theory is presented in Table 1. To summarize: liberals contend that high economic dependence, as manifest in high trade levels, reduces a state's likelihood of initiating war by providing a material â€Å"constraint† on unit-level forces for aggression. Low dependence will increase this likelihood, since this constraint on unit-level motives for war is removed.Realists argue that high dependence heightens the probability of war as dependent states struggle to reduce their vulnerability. In the realist world, however, low dependence should have no impact on the likelihood of war or peace; that is, other factors sh ould become causally determinant of war. Still, since economic interdependence is at least eliminated as a possible source of conflict, realists 39. Note that state A, the decision-making unit in the theory, can still be treated as a rational unitary actor respondingto the observed domestic forces on the other side. 0. See Copeland, â€Å"Modeling Economic Interdependence and War,†pp. 62-66. International trade institutions such as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), by lowering transaction costs and facilitating the punishment of cheaters, may be an additional means to build positive expectations for future trade. Indeed, for some liberals, peace may only be likely when both interdependence and effective global institutions co-exist and reinforce one another; Keohane, â€Å"International Liberalism Reconsidered,† p. 183.While such institutions may indeed affect trade expectations, they are unlikely to be as significant in history as the systemic and dom estic factors just discussed, for the simple reason that these institutions are a creation of the post-World War II era. Moreover, since concerns for war and peace revolve mostly around the great powers, and powers like Soviet Union and China have been historically excluded from trade institutions like GATT, such institutions cannot account for fluctuations in the levels of tension between the United States and these powers since 1945.Finally, the institutional approach overlooks bilateraldiplomacy as the principal mechanism through which expectations of trade change; consider the United States and Japan up to December 1941, or the United States and Japan today. 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