Economic Downturn Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 2000 words

Economic Downturn - Assignment Example Therefore, in this paper, we will first look at the type of economic recessions that are determinable and then we will try and extrapolate the mechanisms which can be implemented by businesses I order to cope with the downturn. We are also of the opinion that budgeting encompasses a major part of any business's planning and forecasting activities, and takes a doubly important role in the time of recession, therefore, we would like focus on that aspect of business in our paper by providing a case analysis of a business and its budgeting process in times of recession which would help it recover from the murky economic conditions. We believe that this portion of survival mechanism is as important, if not more, than any other mechanism of survival which we will discuss in this paper. A large of number of bankrupt firms and work-outs have beset the financial market, yet the market has been able to soak up these fatalities and stronger limits on credit has quickly been able to restore the credit reserve to its original levels. This outcome will be a small period of decreased growth, maybe a negative GDP in a quarter and numerous volatilities in the credit and the financial markets in the way. It is pivotal to note that the decline in stock market prices was nearly 20% in 1998 but the recovery was as fast and strong after the decline. [1] In this case, our framework is simi... [1] Conventional Recession: In this case, our framework is similar and in fact has some aspects influenced by the structure programmed by the Resolution Trust Corp; which was created in a bid to ascertain homeowners were not thrown out of their abodes as well as allow the balance sheets to restore to normal for all the banking institutions that are in place, similar to the actions of 1990 in the aftermath of the oil crisis at that time. The outcome was decreased growth for 2 or 3 quarters in the doldrums and a more profound unconstructive effect on the economy. A gold rush for the better assets in the bond market and the poorly performing equity market would ensue. Assets sensitive to interest rate i.e. with large asset duration would perform exceptionally well in this time period and a depreciation in dollar will increase the likelihood of better returns on investments made in other currencies. This is the most likely scenario in our opinion. [2] Recession like the one seen in Japan: The worst possible scenario and what we consider to be the more unlikely is the current is the one the global economy becomes a model of the Japanese economy of the past whereby the whole economy would keep struggling forward at a snail's pace all the while unaware of which assets are not profitable and which institutions have been contaminated completely. The result would be slow yet steady decline in growth for a number of years with a steady decrease in housing valuation, smaller spending by the population and national investments and businesses in jeopardy. Value of national assets would reduce gradually and the dollar would decline in value. Assets in currencies other than the dollar and